SAF and new‑aircraft shortages threaten aviation’s net‑zero push; ICAO calls for cooperative sourcing

SAF scale and timing are the bottleneck for decarbonisation: IATA has flagged that aircraft and SAF shortages now threaten net‑zero targets while its own forecast cuts show 2025 SAF at only 1.9 Mt (~0.6% of global jet fuel), underscoring a near‑term supply shortfall (source:80be22e9-cd09-4710-8a89-d33bd6055b9d).

Feedstock and market scale remain long‑lead issues: a market study forecasts SAF reaching $50B by 2036 but warns the feedstock “tipping point” is unlikely before 2030, reinforcing constraints on ramping supply and pricing (source:3b36b26e-c83a-4a8f-8f95-18b65cfc8051).

Policy, sourcing and certification will shape winners and risks: ICAO’s plea to avoid treating developing states as mere feedstock suppliers, plus industry warnings about SAF shortfalls and policy reversals, point to geopolitical, investment and regulatory battlegrounds that will determine where SAF capacity is built and who pays (source:b04d004c-3ba4-4604-b186-944621004f24; source:a4ed3387-d3d1-478e-a78f-d6d68301a3cf).