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SAS flags EU ReFuelEU risk: e‑SAF structural shortfall from 2030 could trigger a new aviation fuel crunch

Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) says the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation rules could create a structural shortage of electro-sustainable aviation fuel (e‑SAF) from 2030 onward, as mandated demand outpaces supply. The carrier frames this as a potential “energy crisis”-type constraint for airlines preparing decarbonization compliance.

Discovered 2026-04-30T15:07:54.447144-07:00 | 2026-04-30T15:07:54.447144-07:00

Briefing

What Hype is tracking

ReFuelEU’s 2030-era compliance trajectory is directly tied to SAF availability; SAS warns the market may not produce enough e‑SAF, echoing broader concerns about the EU’s 2030 eSAF volumes versus synthetic-plant readiness in Europe's 2030 eSAF Mandate Faces Supply Risk as Synthetic Jet Fuel Plants Lag.
Fuel security is becoming a decarbonization variable, not just a cost issue—SAS’s “structural shortage” framing aligns with the supply-chain pressure carriers are already managing as SAF volumes and blending mandates tighten, as seen when Europe's airlines likely exceeded 2% SAF blending mandate for 2025.
The warning comes amid an uneven buildout of SAF production capacity and demand-signals; it underscores why operators and policymakers are adjusting policy timing and scale, such as Singapore defers SAF levy to Jan 2027, citing Middle East conflict and jet‑fuel impacts and parallel efforts to expand supply via dedicated plants like SkyNRG breaks ground on the Netherlands' first dedicated SAF plant — 100,000 t/yr due 2028.

Reported By

CAPA EASA aerointernational.de AINonline aircargoweek.com AeroTime