IATA trims 2025 SAF forecast to 1.9 Mt, warns growth still falls short of airlines' decarbonisation needs

IATA has cut its 2025 sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) forecast to 1.9 million tonnes (≈2.4 billion litres) — roughly double 2024 but only about 0.6% of global jet fuel and half previous expectations. High costs, weak policy support and slower scaling put mandates and airline decarbonisation targets at risk.

Discovered 2025-12-09T02:51:53.042215-08:00 | 2025-12-09T02:51:53.042215-08:00

Briefing

What Hype is tracking

  • IATA’s revision — 1.9 Mt in 2025 (≈2.4bn litres), ~0.6% of global kerosene, doubling 2024 output but far below needs — raises industry costs (IATA estimates an incremental $3.6bn in 2025) and underscores that scaling remains the limiting factor; see IATA’s assessment that technology rollout, not feedstock, is the main barrier (https://hype.aero/?story=daaa59e4-1148-4e76-950c-53e88dadc762).
  • The shortfall heightens the importance of clear policy and incentives: emerging mandates and proposals (for example national 1% blending targets and government reviews) will strain supply unless matched by support measures (https://hype.aero/?story=192548fd-e727-444a-af20-a9e50112c80c, https://hype.aero/?story=f8ecf77b-fc6b-4851-96e0-9d8f9bbf3cc2).

Reported By

LARA aviation.direct avionews.it biofuelscentral.com cargonewswire.com Aviation Week
Sources Tracked
23
First Seen
2025-12-09T02:51:53.042215-08:00
Latest Update
2025-12-12T08:47:33.729921-08:00
Coverage
Aviation

Sources

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