Forge ahead with the Sentinel ICBM, but consider making it mobile

Three nuclear experts from separate think tanks argue the United States should proceed with the Sentinel (LGM-35A) ICBM replacement but seriously evaluate and retain options for mobile launchers—road, rail or other—so survivability and deterrence choices can be incorporated during ongoing design and procurement decisions.

Discovered 2025-09-30T11:10:42.917312-07:00 | 2025-09-30T11:10:42.917312-07:00

Briefing

What Hype is tracking

The Sentinel schedule and force structure debate is active: the USAF is now evaluating extending Minuteman III service through 2050 while Sentinel faces delays and a paused FY2025 transition affecting roughly 400 missiles in ~450 silos.
Technical progress on Sentinel continues but is incremental: Northrop Grumman and the USAF recently completed a key vacuum‑chamber test of Sentinel's second‑stage motor, underscoring work still required before full deployment.
Strategic context is shifting: peer competitors are modernizing and expanding ICBM forces — including reports of China building hundreds of new Gobi silos, raising its silo count roughly tenfold — which informs the survivability tradeoffs behind a mobile option.

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